Published 10 Oct, 2017
Updated Femahrnbelt traffic prognosis for Business Park Falster in Guldborgsund Municipality
A new traffic analysis has been completed for the traffic flows passing Business Park Falster located in Guldborgsund Municipality, Denmark. With the base year 2016, the report describes the expected changes in the traffic flows for the years 2028 and 2038 related to the coming Fehmarnbelt tunnel, planned to open in 2028.
The historical and current traffic flows between Denmark and Germany are presented including the two north-south ferry connections Rødby-Puttgarden (Fehmarnbelt) and Gedser-Rostock as well as the traffic crossing the Danish-German border through Jutland. Experiences from the changes in traffic flows due to the establishment of the east-west fixed links across the Great Belt and Øresund are also presented. The key chapter, the traffic forecasts and the analysis of the future traffic situation, is primarily based on the report “Fehmarnbelt Forecast 2014 - Update of the FTC-Study of 2002” made for Fehmarn A/S by two German consultancy firms, INTRAPLAN Consult GmbH and BVU.
The findings of the report describe the expected traffic flows on rail, on road and for freight transported by sea. The main changes in transport patterns and structures will be the reintroduction of rail freight transport crossing the Fehmarnbelt.
Rail freight transport is expected to get a substantial growth, but the major growth will be in transit transport, to which Business Park Falster has no or few services to offer. But still some rail freight has endpoints within the catchment area of Business Park Falster and in 2038 this freight is estimated to be an equivalent of 20 trucks a day to or from Business Park Falster.
No fundamental structural changes are expected in the road freight pattern and structures - the main routes will be unchanged, but the volumes will grow. The number of trucks passing Business Park Falster on E47/55 is estimated to increase from 1.4 million trucks in 2016 to 2.4 million trucks in year 2038, equivalent to a 68% increase.
Freight transport by sea is dominated by ferry cargo transported by trucks and the development will follow the developments in truck transport.
The report provides a more updated and precise picture of the future scenario for the traffic flows relevant for the Business Park Falster. This more precise knowledge is important for planning and investments for the Business Park Falster; both for the local public authorities and for the private investors. The findings therefore will be a basis for the future TENTacle project work.
Download the full traffic analysis in the section “Downloads”.
Further information:
Frede Danborg
Guldborgsund Municipality
E-mail: fd@guldborgsund.dk